Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 21.095423 25.328474 29.975306 35.426866 41.618194 48.402172 56.367746
2025-09-28 13.864313 19.128314 25.512674 33.702961 43.800590 55.709936 70.675616
2025-10-05 10.920446 16.780419 24.441778 34.922616 48.596452 65.531031 87.759359
2025-10-12 8.828967 14.933881 23.454341 35.756149 52.561006 74.192929 103.559081
2025-10-19 7.252730 13.419902 22.557091 36.394635 56.061917 82.216439 118.724942
2025-10-26 6.119475 12.312627 22.003248 37.314930 59.839103 90.634647 134.636320
2025-11-02 4.933736 10.858133 20.674061 36.869284 61.524689 96.162007 146.781168
2025-11-09 4.109680 9.845099 19.864819 37.053619 64.026320 102.823319 160.627659
2025-11-16 3.362332 8.802660 18.836943 36.734489 65.665099 108.236043 172.842771
2025-11-23 2.658924 7.673986 17.478481 35.692795 66.044248 111.743569 182.384857
2025-11-30 2.322572 7.246571 17.321492 36.629185 69.544845 119.955045 198.935603
2025-12-07 1.862147 6.412761 16.263866 35.866583 70.204988 123.856337 209.245273
2025-12-14 1.588737 5.994978 16.032472 36.680789 73.713281 132.574400 227.512757
2025-12-21 1.161808 5.025528 14.502899 34.935385 72.797022 134.402725 235.577488
2025-12-28 1.013464 4.801299 14.547830 36.191101 77.115092 144.664060 256.818432
2026-01-04 0.864171 4.517828 14.406571 37.048085 80.752013 153.941487 276.801577
2026-01-11 0.728231 4.222964 14.184563 37.704374 84.040068 162.745708 296.283851
2026-01-18 0.625453 4.004283 14.110824 38.650195 87.890155 172.593001 317.671284
2026-01-25 0.488590 3.577112 13.419191 38.192207 89.071109 177.993106 332.103112
2026-02-01 0.397119 3.290357 13.045505 38.381651 91.466331 185.502358 350.103256
2026-02-08 0.309191 2.958239 12.474125 38.053672 92.817807 191.239432 365.348167
2026-02-15 0.224295 2.564798 11.628838 36.982970 92.615049 194.235741 376.142060
2026-02-22 0.191346 2.454322 11.635856 37.945444 96.528069 204.574068 399.333038